Barca, Real title race goes down to the wire

Soccer Betting Lines

05/14/2010 - Barcelona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barcelona has secured the La Liga title at Camp Nou in the final match of the season four times, but captain Carles Puyol warned that Sunday's match against Valladolid "will be no stroll."

Barca enters the finale with a one-point cushion on Real Madrid and a win over relegation-threatened Valladolid would clinch the club's 20th Spanish crown.

Real Madrid visits relegation-threatened Malaga on Sunday, but needs Barcelona to falter to have a chance. Barca will still claim the title with a defeat, if Real losses or draws.

Although Barcelona is unbeaten at home - 17 wins and one tie - Puyol was still cautious with Valladolid facing the drop, and his teammates feel the same way.

"It will be difficult playing against a team facing relegation," Puyol said on the club's website.

"They've got a lot at stake," Barca's Bojan Krkic said on the team's website. "We expect it to be a difficult match and we'll have to clinch it as soon as possible."

Other than its 1-1 draw against Villarreal, Barcelona has been nearly flawless at Camp Nou. In its 17 wins, Barca has scored 52 goals and allowed just 10.

Krkic felt it was important to get an early lead against Valladolid, which has earned 10 results on the road this season.

"In this kind of match you have to avoid getting stuck at 0-0 for too long. That's why it's important to start well and get the support of the fans right from the beginning," he said.

Barca coach Pep Guardiola should welcome back Andres Iniesta and Eric Abidal, but Xavi is out after picking up his fifth yellow card last week. He earned an automatic one-match suspension for accumulated cards, but Barcelona has appealed.

Valladolid, led by former Spain coach Javier Clemente, can still remain in the top flight with a loss, but will be counting on other results in a fight among five clubs.

Valladolid is one of four teams on 36 points - along with Malaga, Racing and Tenerife - and Xerez is three points back but still has hope.

Malaga faces a tough test against Real, which is trying to avoid finishing the season without a single title after its nearly $400 million makeover.

"We expect to win, but it will be a very difficult match because both teams have so much at stake," Real's Gago said on the club's website. "We will both play to the fullest. We need the points to have a chance of winning the title and Malaga need to win in order to avoid relegation.

"I hope it's Real Madrid that win. No team can ever be too confident because every match is like a final."

Tenerife also faces a top club Sunday when it visits Valencia, which has third and a Champions League spot secured.

Racing is in the best position of the relegation-threatened sides, as it hosts Sporting Gijon. Sporting is just above the drop zone. Xerez visits Osasuna but may not even survive with a win.

The last Champions League berth and two Europa League spots will be determined on Saturday.

Fourth-place Sevilla visits Almeria and fifth-place Mallorca hosts Espanyol in the battle for the Champions League spot. Sevilla would secure the spot with a win, while Mallorca needs a win and either a loss or draw by Sevilla. Fifth is still good enough for a Europa spot.

The other Europa spot will go to Getafe or Villarreal, who enter the final day level on points. Getafe holds the tiebreaker, so it will claim the berth if it matches Villarreal's result against Real Zaragoza when it visits newly-crowned Europa League champions Atletico Madrid.

Athletic Bilbao hosts Deportivo in the other match in La Liga on Saturday.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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