This Week in Auto Racing November 16 - November 18

Autoracing Betting Lines

11/13/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nextel Cup championship has come down to the final race with the title still up for grabs, but the best race of the weekend will likely be the Craftsman Truck Series battle between Mike Skinner and Ron Hornaday Jr.

NASCAR

Nextel Cup

Ford 400 - Homestead-Miami Speedway - Homestead, FL

Although the "Chase for the Nextel Cup" winner is still in doubt entering this week's event in Florida, it is not a close race. By winning the last four events, 2006 Nextel Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson is on the verge of successfully defending his title.

When Jeff Gordon won the Bank of America 500 at the Lowe's Motor Speedway, he held a 68-point led over Johnson. It was his second consecutive win and he looked like a pretty sure bet to win his fifth series title. Gordon had just won in "Jimmie's house" and had just posted his fourth top-five in five "Chase" races.

But then Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus went on a roll that was even better than the one that won them the 2006 championship. In that year they put together a string of five straight top-two finishes (four seconds and one win). This time around he began his charge with a win at Martinsville, normally Gordon's bailiwick. He followed that win with triumphs at Atlanta, Fort Worth and Phoenix. The wins in Texas and Arizona were the first ever for Johnson at both tracks.

Now Johnson heads to the final event with a commanding 86-point lead and his competition already thinking that it is all over.

"Those guys are on an unbelievable roll...and we're just coming up short at a crucial time," said Gordon after the race in Phoenix. "It's over. It's over. Even if we win it, it's because they have problems. While we'll accept it, we don't want to do it that way."

"They're as good as any group I've seen, including Jeff in his heyday when he was winning 10 races a year and the championship by over a hundred points," said 2003 Nextel Cup champion Matt Kenseth.

Before we crown Johnson for the second time there is the little matter of the Ford 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. As good as Johnson is running, there is always the possibility of an engine failure or a mental error by Johnson or those around him.

This last race has become a particularly dangerous situation because many of those in the race with the "Chase" drivers are on different agendas. There are a number of drivers trying to save their own jobs that need a good finish. There are drivers who are trying to keep or get their teams in the top-35 to guarantee a starting position in next year's opening races. And there are still others making their first few appearances in a Nextel Cup cars that aren't quite used to the performance and handling of a "Cup" car. Any of these drivers could take Johnson out of the race with an ill-timed move.

Which is why Johnson will probably try to drive somewhere near the front or at least with Nextel Cup regulars where he knows what they are likely to do at any given moment.

Johnson needs to finish 18th or better to clinch the title, but don't be surprised if he runs near or at the lead for most of the day. And don't be surprised if Greg Biffle is up near the front as well. The No.16 Roush Fenway Racing driver has won the last three Homestead races.

But this race is all about Johnson and his ability to stay out of trouble and finish with clean fenders. For the No.48 Hendrick Motorsports team, that shouldn't be a problem and look for him to win a second consecutive championship.

Busch

Ford 300 - Homestead-Miami Speedway - Homestead, FL

It's the final race of the 2007 Busch Series season and in fact the final race under the Busch banner as the series will become the Nationwide Series in 2008.

The drivers championship has been locked up for a couple of months by Carl Edwards and the No.60 Roush Fenway Racing Ford team and the owner's championship will be clinched by Richard Childress Racing and the No.29 Chevrolet team when the car starts the final race. It was Edwards' first Busch Series championship and the fourth Busch owner's title for Richard Childress. It is the 11th overall title for RCR which includes six Nextel Cup wins and one Craftsman Truck Series championship. RCR drivers have won 12 times this season - six by Kevin Harvick, two from Clint Bowyer and four by Jeff Burton.

This is just the second time that the driver and owner titles have been split. In 2003 RCR with drivers Harvick and Johnny Sauter won the owner title while Brian Vickers won the driver's crown.

Matt Kenseth won last year's season ending race beating Edwards to the checkered flag. On the final stop, Kenseth's crew had a little problem on the right side and he came out fourth behind Edwards, Paul Menard and Denny Hamlin. Kenseth moved into second place with 21 laps to go having only Edwards in front of him.

Kenseth was the fastest car on the track and trailed Edwards by about half-a- second with 15 laps to go. They were side-by-side with 12 remaining and on the next lap the No.17 Ford made the clean pass underneath Edwards.

Edwards refused to go away, but staying with Kenseth was a lot different than passing him. He couldn't do it and Kenseth took his second consecutive Busch Series victory.

Craftsman

Ford 200 - Homestead-Miami Speedway - Homestead, FL

While the Busch Series title has already been determined and Jimmie Johnson holding a commanding lead in the Nextel Cup Series, the most exciting race of the final weekend will be in the truck series. Of course, on most weekends the most exciting race is usually in the Craftsman Truck Series.

The races are short enough that as a driver you can't wait around for the final 50 laps and it creates a great event.

Mike Skinner and Ron Hornaday Jr. have put on a great show in 2007 and have one more performance on the schedule. After an eighth-place finish at PIR Skinner will bring a small 29-point lead to the Homestead-Miami Speedway. The margin is the fourth-closest in series history and is the 12th time in 13 seasons that the championship has gone down to the final race. Interestingly, only twice has the leader failed to maintain his margin and win the championship (1999, 2003).

In 1999 Jack Sprague came from 13 points down to edge Greg Biffle and in 2003 Travis Kvapil took advantage of a Brendan Gaughan problem to come from 34 points off the pace to win the title.

Skinner can clinch the championship by finishing second (or third and leading one lap).

But Skinner would have a bigger lead if he had not been passed by his teammate Johnny Benson late in last week's race.

"I'm not the boss, I guess we're not a team," said Skinner about Benson. "I thought he was taking care of me. I don't know. I don't want to comment on it."

The move cost Skinner four points.

"All we can do is keep doing what we are doing and racing hard," said Hornaday Jr. "I've got a team that says, 'Never say die' and we're bringing a pretty good piece to the race. We'll just do everything we can."

It should make for an exciting race, probably the best of the weekend.

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FOOTBALL BETTING LINES

NFL Football Sports Betting

Two playoff teams from 2007 take center stage on the NFL Network Sunday night in a Week 2 NFL betting match-up when the (0-1) New England Patriots betting head south to Florida for a contest with the (1-0) Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

New England HC Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about the way his team plays in the preseason. With a chance to tie last week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens betting, He elected to go for the two-point conversion and outright victory. The conversion failed, and the Pats ended up falling to the Ravens by a 16-15 final count.

New England rolled off twelve unanswered points to give it a chance at securing the victory, but it never threatened to cover the 3.5-point spread. NFL bettors saw this one coming, as they bet the Ravens down from +6 to +3.5 as the week progressed. QB Tom Brady didn’t take part in the Patriots first preseason clash, but could see action this weekend.

His three replacements all put up embarrassing numbers. They went a combined 17 for 33, and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The New England defense was encouraging, as they held the Ravens to 2/12 third down conversions and surrendered just ten first downs. That ‘D’ should be bolstered with the addition of former Bucs and Denver Broncos betting safety John Lynch, who could make his Patriots debut on Sunday against his former mates.

HC Jon Gruden had to be impressed with the way his Bucs played on both sides of the ball in their dominating 17-6 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1’s NFL pre-season betting action. Bucs bettors were quite happy with the effort, as they made a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in the game.

The logjam at the quarterback position didn’t get any easier to separate for Gruden, as all four of his QBs had positive experiences in the first exhibition of 2008. The four combined to complete 28 of their 40 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, and that was without starting QB Jeff Garcia in the lineup.

RB Michael Bennett had 19 carries and four receptions, totaling 90 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more of Bennett, Kenneth Darby, and Earnest Graham, as they all compete for playing time with Warrick Dunn in the backfield this season. Defensively, the Bucs recorded four sacks and held the Fins offense in check all day.

First round draft pick Aqib Talib was impressive in the secondary, recording a tackle and two pass defenses in his debut. Don’t be surprised to see Talib in the starting lineup opposite Ronde Barber for the Bucs in ’08.

The betting trends suggest that NFL bettors should be backing the Bucs in this intra-conference exhibition.

These two teams hooked up last year in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs winning that game 13-10. The Buccaneers have only lost one preseason game at home dating back to the beginning of the ’05 preseason. The Patriots have had a mixed bag of results in their recent exhibitions. They have gone 2-2 ATS and SU each of the last three years.

New England currently sits as modest 1-point favorites in this preseason showdown with the ‘total’ now sitting at 34.5.

You can find these lines and all of the NFL betting lines , so be sure to login and get your wagers down before kickoff!

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines .
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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