Hockey world waits for Kovalchuk

Hockey Betting Lines

07/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - We now know that the LeBron James sweepstakes is set to end Thursday night in prime time, but the NHL's biggest free agent may take a little longer to choose his next team.

It was originally expected that Ilya Kovalchuk wouldn't last long on the open market, as is normally the case when supreme NHL talent is available via free agency. But, here we are, nearly a week into hockey's summer shopping season and a certain Russian sniper has still yet to make a decision on his future.

Heading into free agency it appeared the New Jersey Devils, who acquired Kovalchuk from the Atlanta Thrashers at the last trade deadline, and the Los Angeles Kings had the best chance of signing the five-time 40-goal scorer, but now it seems that leaving the NHL to play back home in Russia is a distinct possibility.

At the present time, smart money says the Devils have the best chance at signing Kovalchuk, but news reports out of Russia are suggesting that SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL is close to locking up the superstar for $9 million a year.

Now, the Kings, who were said to be out of the Kovi sweepstakes earlier this week when he reportedly turned down LA's offer of 13 years, $84 million, are said to be back in the race.

Also, depending on who you listen to, the New York Islanders are in the mix to sign Kovalchuk, but if you believe that, then I've got a Lighthouse Project at Long Island to sell you.

Through all these rumors, we've heard next-to-nothing from the Kovalchuk camp. On Monday, Kovalchuk's North American agent, Jay Grossman, revealed on Twitter that his client was "looking to make a decision on his future today," but eight hours later we were told there would be "no announcement tonight." If that was an elaborate plan by Grossman to increase his Twitter followers, then it worked, but we haven't heard anything of consequence from the agent since.

If I were Kovalchuk, it wouldn't take me long to figure out that the Kings were my best NHL option.

With the Devils, Kovalchuk would maybe have a better chance to win a Stanley Cup next year or two seasons from now, but the Kings and their talented, young roster are set up to compete for titles for the next decade or so. All LA really lacks is a potent sniper, and with 338 goals in 621 career games, there has been no one with more tallies than Kovalchuk since he entered the league with the Thrashers back in 2001-02.

Only Alex Ovechkin is a better pure scorer and considering Kovalchuk's countryman is signed with Washington through 2020-21, we may never see Ovie hit the open market. So, if a goal-scorer is what you covet, there is no better option than Kovalchuk. That being said, Kings general manager Dean Lombardi needs to find a way to sign Kovalchuk without jeopardizing his young team's salary cap situation in the future.

Devils general manager Lou Lamoriello also has cap issues to think about when considering signing Kovalchuk. The team will likely need to unload money before the start of the regular season to make the cap situation work.

As for Kovalchuk's KHL option, there is little the North American media can offer on that subject. Kovalchuk's Russian agent suggested earlier this week that his client was certainly leaning towards staying in the NHL, but we can't really know how strongly the winger is considering playing professionally in his home country.

If Kovalchuk winds up playing in the KHL, it would be a huge loss for North American hockey. There are few players who can take over a game offensively like Kovalchuk, and a move to Russia would rob NHL fans of a chance to witness one of the game's greatest talents.

One hopes that Kovalchuk's ultimate decision isn't based primarily on money, but it would be hard to blame him if it was. For all the knocks on his game, like he doesn't play defense or the fact that has never even won a playoff series, Kovalchuk's unique sniping ability allows him to command top dollar and, at 27 years of age, there is no better time to capitalize on his value to a prospective NHL or KHL team.

Kovalchuk's impending decision may have taken a back seat to LeBron's all- consuming search for an NBA destination, but that doesn't make it of any less interest to die-hard hockey fans. I certainly hope Kovi makes a choice soon, but let's pray he doesn't need to take up an hour of prime time TV in order to come that decision.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.